Workbike research
news comment makers operators resources research free ads	TAJ MAHAL CYCLE TAXI IMPROVEMENT PROJECT: AN NGO-PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERSHIP Dr. Walter Hook, Executive Director, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy INTRODUCTION The Taj Mahal Cycle Taxi Improvement Project was initiated by the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) based on a request from the Municipality of Agra, the Indian Government, the U.S. Agency for International Development's Energy, Environment, and Enterprise Program, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which were working together developing strategies to save some of the world's most famous monuments. The Taj Mahal, the Agra Fort, Akbar's Tomb and Sikandra, and Krishna's birth site, the Itmad-Ud Daula are being discolored with orange, black, and brown staining from suspended particulate matter (SPM) and Hydrocarbon (HC) emissions which came mainly from motor vehicles and internal combustion power generators. The adverse effects of these pollutants are quite localized, meaning that the immediate threats to the monuments could be avoided by controlling access to the Taj area by motorized vehicles. In 1994 a Supreme Court order mandated that motorized vehicles be restricted in the 4 square kilometers immediately surrounding the Taj. Furthermore, the Taj is surrounded on three sides by a neighborhood of narrow winding streets known as the Taj Ganj, which makes access by taxi and bus difficult and congested even without the restrictions. These circumstances have created a lucrative market for all manner of non-motorized vehicles. As most of the travelers to the Taj are tourists, many of them would like to reach the monument using a traditional mode of travel, to give them the flavor of traveling in India. Many tourists already use the horse drawn cart and even camel to make the short trip from the parking lot to the Taj, in trips arranged by various tourist agencies, and many people already travel from the nearby tourist hotels to the Taj by cycle rickshaw. Tourism is one of the most important sources of income and employment in Agra, and a visit to the Taj Mahal is a major draw for tourists to come to India, bringing critical foreign exchange. Tourist visits to the Taj, however, are quite modest given the fame of the monument. Furthermore, a large number of visitors to the Taj Mahal make a day trip from Delhi, and do not spend the night in Agra or visit the four other world-class tourist sites in the city, three of which are nearby. The environmental and social problems in Agra described below are a large part of why more tourists don't stay longer in Agra, creating more jobs and local revenue. The Associated Chambers of Commerce in Agra, the Agra Tourist Promotion Board, and the Municipality, have therefore taken a serious role in working to improve the environmental and social conditions to make the city a more hospitable place for tourists and residents alike. The ITDP is not in the business of promoting tourism or preserving international monuments; our mandate is to promote environmentally sustainable and equitable transportation. We became interested in the project because we saw in this very particular set of circumstances as an opportunity to build private sector and government support to address critical environmental and social problems in India which we have long been working towards some solution. Environmental Reasons for the Project As an environmental organization, ITDP was concerned about the environmental ramifications of the trend in India of rapid increases in motor vehicle use. As incomes rise, individuals switch from using the non-polluting, energy-saving bicycles and non-motorized cycle rickshaw to highly-polluting two-stroke engine motorcycles and three-wheeled Bajaj taxi, resulting in a dramatic increase in transport sector air emissions. As well as damage to the monuments, residents of Indian cities face severe public health risks as a result of being exposed to levels of lead, NOx, CO, SPM, and HC from motor vehicle emissions well above World Health Organization standards. The major threat to public health from motor vehicle emissions in Indian cities is airborne lead, which has been proven to hurt early childhood cognitive development. Incidences of bronchitis, lung cancer, pneumonia, and other upper respiratory illnesses in Agra are also elevated. Finally, motor vehicle emissions are also a major source of CO2 emissions, which are a major cause of global warming. While currently India is not a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, if the country motorizes rapidly using available technology, their contribution to global warming will grow sharply. The cycle rickshaw and wallah (cycle rickshaw driver) contribute minimally to pollution. In Agra the average rickshaw wallah travels around 24,500 km per year. If these trips were changed into trips by highly polluting two stroke IC engine, the annual emission impact would be roughly an additional 11 metric tons of lead in Agra's atmosphere, 4000 tons of particulates, 20,000 metric tons of CO, and 150 tons of NOx. (Based on estimates of 2 stroke motorcycle engines in Chile, from Turner, Weaver, and Reale, 1993). Such increases, particularly of particulates, CO, and lead, would lead to thousands of additional deaths from respiratory and cardiac disease each year. ITDP was therefore looking for ways of encouraging the use of human powered taxis, cycling, and walking in population centers where the air quality benefits are the most important, and where distances are short enough to make this mode economically and commercially viable. In order to do so, however, many criticisms of cycle rickshaws, both legitimate and unfair, would need to be overcome. Social Reasons for the Project While a city of some of the world's most magnificent monuments, Agra is also a city of severe poverty, underemployment, and low productivity employment. The cycle rickshaw is an important source of employment for many of India's lower income people, In Agra the cycle rickshaws provide employment for roughly 10% of the adult population, and a critical source of low-cost basic mobility for India's lower and middle classes. Even wealthier Indians tend to rely on the cycle rickshaw for bringing their children to school, paying a monthly fee for the service. At the same time, there is a stigma attached to being a wallah, as it is seen as a lower class job. There are officially 10,000 licensed cycle rickshaws in Agra employing 30,000 wallahs; three wallahs will use a single cycle rickshaw in shifts. While no official count exists of unregistered cycle rickshaws, estimates from Agra residents indicate that there are at least another 10,000 to 20,000 unregistered cycle rickshaws employing another 30,000 to 60,000 wallahs. Thus, the total number of jobs created by the provision of cycle rickshaw service in Agra ranges from 30,000 to 90,000 Some 30% to 40% of wallahs own and operate their own vehicles, and 60% to 70% rent them from an owner of a cycle rickshaw fleet. Average earnings are $1.30 per day, of which $0.30 goes to the owner of the cycle rickshaw. This puts cycle rickshaw drivers at the World Bank's global poverty line (income of $1.00 per day or less). It also makes the industry a sizable one for the region. Total annual revenue to the region from direct income of the wallahs thus ranges between $14.345 million and $42.7 million. Agra is also an important regional manufacturer of cycle rickshaws, and is known for producing a high-quality cycle rickshaw. Agra produces between 30,000 and 50,000 cycle rickshaws per year, the majority of which are exported throughout the region within a roughly 80 km. radius of the city. The average cycle rickshaw manufacturing firm employs 20 or more people, and there are 5 major cycle rickshaw manufacturers in Agra, producing roughly 10 to 20 vehicles per day. Thus, more than 100 people are employed in the manufacture of cycle rickshaws in Agra, and at least as many in service and maintenance activities. These manufacturers also rely on subcontractors to construct the seats and other specialty components, constituting probably another 100 jobs. The cycle rickshaw kit which is assembled by a local manufacturer is made in the Punjabi city of Ludhiana, known as the 'bicycle capital of India', which produces bicycles for export all over the developing world, and components for cycle rickshaws all over India. A rough estimate of total employment generated by the manufacture and service side of the cycle rickshaw industry in Agra thus ranges between 500 and 1000 jobs. These are slightly better paying jobs than those of the wallahs. The cost of the average cycle rickshaw ranges between 4500 and 7000 rupees, or between $100 and $250. Cycle rickshaw manufacturing brings a value added to Agra of roughly $3 - $5 million, much of it in export revenues (i.e. exported to the surrounding region). The total size of the cycle rickshaw industry in Agra is thus in the range of $20 to $50 million per year, and total employment ranging between 30,500 and 91,000 per year. Despite the environmental benefits of the cycle rickshaw, and the economic importance of the industry particularly to low income families, public attitudes towards the cycle rickshaw in India are negative, and their use is being phased out in many Indian cities and elsewhere in Asia. Negative attitudes about the cycle rickshaw are based on views that their use is exploitative to the driver, the vehicles are not safe, the drivers are not trustworthy, they exacerbate roadway congestion, and are in general viewed as backward. While no immediate threat exists to cycle rickshaw operations in Agra, the cycle rickshaw was banned from operating in New Delhi less than a decade ago, although they still operate in Old Delhi, and they face a major battle for their existence in Calcutta this year. Similar trends to restrict the use of cycle rickshaws can be observed in Indonesia, Vietnam, and China. By contrast, cycle rickshaws have been introduced for the first time in history in over 40 cities in the U.S., as well as in the capitals of many major Western and Central European cities, and recently in Manila as well. Their emergence in Europe and the U.S. is the result of a confluence of factors: growing concern about environmental pollution, the growing popularity of urban planning measures to traffic calm and pedestrianize the street environment in downtown commercial or tourist areas, the growing importance of tourism as an industry, and finally the enormous gains in human powered vehicle technologies which, by dramatic reductions in vehicle weight and specialized gearing, have increased dramatically the ease with which the vehicles are operated and their safety and stability in traffic conditions. Inducing a Process of Technological Innovation in the Indian Cycle Rickshaw Industry ITDP realized that unless the legitimate criticisms of the cycle rickshaw could be addressed, the positive environmental and social benefits of the industry would be lost. Much of the stigma against the vehicle was based on its perception of being 'backward.' In fact, the current vehicles in operation are 'backward,' in the sense that the technology being used was developed more than fifty years ago based on indigenous modifications of a British-designed bicycle, and only very limited modifications have occurred since then. We therefore set up a project designed not only to develop a superior vehicle, but to induce a process of ongoing, commercially-induced technological change in the Indian private sector bicycle and cycle-rickshaw industries. Only by demonstrating the technical possibilities of human powered technology, and by introducing technologically superior vehicles to a concrete test market, could we begin to change the image of the cycle rickshaw, reduce the exploitation of the driver, and give the mode a chance to compete with motorized alternatives for certain segments of the transport market. Lack of innovation is not restricted to the non-motorized vehicle industry, but typifies much vehicle technology in India. The common 'Ambassador' taxi, based on the 'Simca', dates from the 1960s. The three-wheeled motorized Bajaj taxi only recently introduced the first innovation in decades, overcoming considerable resistance. Technological innovation in the bicycle industry in developing countries, as in other industries, has generally been prompted by an attempt to capture more lucrative export markets, with production developments only gradually being passed on to domestic production where profit margins are not high enough to justify the technological innovation. Most technical innovation in China and India has resulted from technical collaboration with foreigners through joint-ventures. Bicycles produced in Shenzhen (a special economic zone) by Chinese- Taiwanese, Chinese-Hong Kong, and Chinese-American joint ventures, are now producing the most competitive low-end product available. For example, the China Bicycle Company, (CBC) a joint venture with Hong Kong Bicycles and Schwinn Bicycle Company, is now producing one of the most competitively priced bicycles in the world. These firms have focused on producing a higher quality bicycle, costing around $100, rather than producing the lowest price/lowest quality bicycle. A large share of their market is for exports, but the higher quality vehicles are also entering the domestic market. In India, the vast majority of bicycles tend to be made using technologies and designs many decades old, with low cost materials and components that are widely available in India. They tend to use low-carbon steel tubing, dipped in molten brass, or 'furnace brazed.' The frame is sand -blasted then chrome plated or painted in an electrostatic painting chamber; a reasonable method but of irregular quality. Most of the vehicles are sold 'completely-knocked-down' (CKD), and assembled locally, to save money on shipping, although some exports are sold 'semi-knocked down' (SKD). Similarly, the cycle rickshaw currently manufactured in Agra is a combination of a 'kit' which is mass-produced in Ludhiana and sent completely knocked down to Agra, where the chassis and carriage are manufactured by hand in small shops. While there is little technological innovation going on at most of the big bicycle and cycle-rickshaw manufacturers, Hero Cycles is the most advanced Indian manufacturer in terms of technological innovation, has a fairly sophisticated research and development department, and has been slowly modernizing their bicycle, both by upgrading their equipment and by setting up new components manufacturers. Hero, in joint venture with Honda Motors of Japan, now has a new bicycle factory with the most modern welding, assembling, and painting machinery in the world, imported from Europe, Japan, and Taiwan, although most of this technical innovation has gone to the development of a moped rather than to a superior bicycle. There has also appeared in recent years on the outskirts of Delhi a cluster of smaller, more innovation-minded bike manufacturers producing specialty mountain bikes and even recumbants. These smaller manufacturers are able to produce small batch, higher cost specialty orders with high risk designs that the larger manufacturers are unwilling to produce. Thus, technological innovation is generally a market driven process aimed at producing a more expensive, higher quality vehicle for higher income groups, and the new technology gradually becomes more affordable to lower income groups. The lack of technological innovation in the cycle rickshaw industry was linked to the perception that there is no market for an up-scale, superior vehicle, as it was assumed that higher income taxi drivers and passengers would switch to motorized vehicles. The typical passenger doesn't care how difficult it is for the wallah to pedal, so long as the price is low, and the wallah is generally very poor and wants to buy the cheapest vehicle available that will require the least maintenance. Previous attempts by NGOs to attempt to induce technological innovation in the cycle rickshaw industry in India and elsewhere have met with only limited success in terms of the commercial dissemination of newly developed technologies. Nonetheless, this institutional experience of both failures and modest success provided valuable insight into how NGO can facilitate the process of technological innovation, and how they can fail as well. The best documented attempts to upgrade the rickshaw and the cycle rickshaw come from Bangladesh. Conditions in Bangladesh differ slightly from Indian conditions. The bicycle, cycle-rickshaw, and components industries, as well as industrial producers of alternative metals such as higher grade aluminum, are far better developed in India than in Bangladesh. Nonetheless, the Bangladesh experience offers valuable insights. The first attempt to improve the Bangladesh cycle rickshaw started as a cooperative venture between the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology and the Intermediate Technology Development Group of the U.K. in the late 1970s. Together, they designed a lighter passenger seat, and introduced gears. In the mid-1980s, Inter-Pares, a Canadian NGO working with engineer Fred Willkie, designed an entirely new cycle rickshaw which was manufactured at two factories in Comilla and Manikganj. In both cases, improved vehicle designs were developed, but were never incorporated into commercial production. The reasons for the failure to gain commercial acceptance were many. According to our analysis, the two most typical causes of project failure were the failure to work closely with industry and the failure to identify a clear target market for a superior cycle rickshaw that will inevitably cost more in the initial years of production. In most previous projects, all of the work was done by universities and NGO's in isolation from the industry, and then only once the vehicle was designed did they try to convince the industry to adopt it. They tried to introduce the vehicles in a geographically dispersed manner, which meant that the handful that were seen were regarded as oddities and there were no centralized facilities for their maintenance. (Gallagher, 1992) Finally, in the Bangladesh project, the project sponsors decided that the new rickshaws would be sold only to rickshaw puller cooperatives rather than large businesses owned by a single family firm. Their aim was that the benefits should go directly to the pullers, rather than the owners, and also to encourage cooperatives. Furthermore, they manufactured the trial fleet themselves, rather than hiring a current manufacturer of the vehicles, so the current manufacturers viewed the new technology as a threat. In this way, many of the strongest firms in the industry had a vested interest in the failure of the new technology, as it was a threat to their business. (Gallagher, 1992) Several other attempts to introduce commercially viable intermediate transport technologies in India, by IT Transport and the Intermediate Technology Development Group in England, under contract for the International Labor Organization, have been more successful. IT Transport successfully introduced a bicycle trailer in the Indian states of Andhra and Uttar Pradesh (located in Agra Region). After an initial design was developed by IT Transport engineers, four local manufacturing facilities of bicycle trailers began production on a commercial basis, and have produced some 400 trailers as of last reporting. Purchasers of the trailers were said to double their income, (Zille, 1989) helping them generate sufficient revenues to repay the cost of the trailer. World Bank-sponsored projects to develop commercially viable bicycle trailers and small farm vehicles in Ghana also had considerable success. IT Transport in the U.K. developed two bicycle trailers and five small farm vehicle prototypes over a period of several months in cooperation with the Technology Consultancy Center (TCC) in Kumasi. At the same time, a market survey was conducted to identify possible users. Then, several local manufacturing facilities were hired to manufacture 600 bicycle trailers and 500 small farm vehicles (modified wheelbarrows). These vehicles relied on imported wheels, and logistical problems of receiving the wheels and distributing the final product slowed the project down. These first vehicles were then distributed to project beneficiaries at minimal cost for testing the impacts on their basic mobility, and to refine vehicle design. In the second phase, IT Transport and TCC trained technicians from two local private sector manufacturers, Fatawu Bicycles, and Goodman & Sons, Inc. who were interested in commercial production. Training took approximately two weeks. Fatawu modified the design and developed three prototypes of their own, and another local entrepreneur in Sunyani developed a hand cart. The cost of the vehicles, at $120 (for the bicycle) plus $150 for the trailer was unaffordable to many project beneficiaries. In order to induce the commercial manufacturers to produce these vehicles on a commercial basis, they required the cooperation of the Ministry of Local Government, which in cooperation with the Social Security Bank, set up a revolving loan fund at below-market interest rates, making the vehicle affordable in a hire-to-purchase arrangement over a three year period. (Heierli, 1993; Pankaj, T., 1991) The small farm vehicles were adopted by many small scale entrepreneurs without need for credit and is now in wide commercial production and use throughout Ghana. (Amegbletor, 1993) ITDP's Mobility Haiti project developed innovative designs for human powered ambulatory vehicles which are now used to bring patients from local clinics in Deschapelles to the Hospital Albert Schweitzer based in Haiti's Artibonite Valley. Prototype development took several months, and access to components was a continuing problem. The initial purchaser of these vehicles was the Hospital, and other health facilities in the region also expressed considerable interest, but the Hospital never decided to purchase a trial fleet. As such, the vehicles were successful from the point of view of meeting basic human needs and finding a market niche, but while the product displayed commercial viability, the project partners were not able to take the prototype to commercial production. The above projects and programs provided critical experience in both the development and viable commercial dissemination of appropriate transport technologies, and outlines some key dangers that the Agra project has tried to carefully avoid. The Market for a Superior Cycle Rickshaw, or a 'Cycle Taxi' The particular circumstances in Agra, with the large tourist industry, a famous monument, and thus a private sector and a public sector dedicated to a cleaner environment, created the market and political conditions ideal for the introduction of a superior technology. ITDP identified three possible markets for a superior cycle rickshaw or cycle rickshaws for use in the Agra area which have the potential of attracting private sector investor interest. First, the tourists represent a significant potential market for a superior vehicle. The 4 square kilometer ban on motorized vehicles around the Taj Mahal means that travel agencies running large tour groups in Agra tend to bring tourists to a bus parking lot still a few kilometers from the entrance to the Taj Mahal. Cycle rickshaws are already providing this service through agreements with the large tourist agencies, as are camel and horse drawn vehicles. Tourists feel somewhat uncomfortable on the current cycle rickshaws as they are not very stable, are often poorly maintained, and the wallahs have to get off the cycle rickshaw and pull the passengers up a modest hill, an experience which many tourists find embarrassing. Discussions with these travel agencies expressed their interest in a superior cycle rickshaw service that would be of lower cost than the horse and camel-drawn vehicles, and several tourist agencies expressed a willingness to explore the possibility of investing in a trial fleet if the prototypes were acceptable. A tourist can visit four of the five major tourist sites in Agra entirely on cycle rickshaw. Reaching the Taj Mahal from the major tourist hotels is a short trip by cycle rickshaw through the winding streets of the Taj Ganj, a quaint traditional Indian neighborhood of considerable tourist appeal in itself, which is closed to most motorized vehicle traffic. Reaching the three other major sites by cycle rickshaw is less than a half hour ride between destinations. A current cycle rickshaw can be hired for a full day to reach all of these sites for 100 Rupees (roughly $3.00). The trip from the train station to the hotels could also be made by cycle rickshaw, though the journey is somewhat longer. Unfortunately, only more adventurous tourists are likely to be willing to make this trip. Casual interviews with tourists indicated their reluctance to travel by cycle rickshaw, despite the pleasure of this mode of travel, because of difficulties in communicating with the driver, fear that the driver is going to charge them an unfair price, discomfort about exploiting the driver, and fear that the driver will take them to a destination they did not intend and place them in a compromising position. Based on interviews and discussions with the Tourist Promotion Board in Agra, tourists would be willing to pay considerably more than the $3.00 to hire a cycle rickshaw for a day if the cycle rickshaw were more comfortable, more stable, and safer, if the driver was able to pedal up the modest hills surrounding the Taj rather than having to walk, if the service was associated with a travel agency or a hotel, if the rates were made clear at some set rate, and if the destinations were made clear ahead of time. Currently, due to the low esteem in which cycle rickshaws are held, the cycle rickshaw operators are not allowed to ride up to the hotel's front door, unlike motorized vehicles. A superior vehicle, however, might be allowed to pick up passengers from directly from the concierge. The Tourist Promotion Board estimates that 1/3 of the 1000 visitors to the Taj per day would be willing to travel to the Taj by cycle rickshaw under these conditions, and would be willing to pay $3.00 just for the trip to the Taj and back to the hotels. If the wallah made three trips per day, they could afford to pay $3.00 a day for the rental of the vehicle (ten times the current rental rate), and the wallah would earn $6.00 per day, (six times the average). The estimated number of vehicles to meet this demand would be roughly 100. As the profits on this vehicle owner would be roughly ten times that of a standard vehicle, the cost of the vehicle could be as much as ten times the cost of the existing vehicle and still be profitable. This would allow for a vehicle cost of between $600 and $1000 dollars. Secondly, the growing use of cycle rickshaws in the cities of the U.S. and Western Europe has also created the possibility of exporting the vehicles. The most popular cycle rickshaws currently in operation in the U.S. cost $3000 to $4000 per vehicle FOB US Ports. Cycle rickshaws manufactured in India, if they could come close to matching the quality of these vehicles, could readily enjoy an export market. There are already cycle rickshaws being manufactured in Madras for export to Oxford, England, with designs developed with a company in Oxford. Most cycle rickshaw manufacturers have exported a few cycle rickshaws to Europe, but European cycle rickshaw operators prefer more expensive Western vehicles because the Indian vehicles are too heavy, to unstable, and lack gearing. A third possible market for a superior cycle rickshaw is for the school children of middle and upper income families. Currently most families send their children to school in cycle rickshaws heavily crowded with children. Concerns about their safety might induce some families to switch to a superior vehicle even if more expensive if they felt their children would be safer. PROJECT DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION ITDP knew that we could not implement the project alone. Many individuals in India had been working for years on possible improvements on the cycle rickshaw, knew the capabilities of the Indian cycle industry, the availability of various specialty components, and the problems encountered in these projects. In order to combine this experience with ITDP's international experience in the field, we negotiated a memorandum of understanding with the Asian Institute for Transport Development (AITD) in New Delhi. AITD was not as interested in developing a higher-end cycle rickshaw for the tourist market, and was more interested in disseminating a superior, lower cost vehicle in the Delhi area. They put together an advisory team of Indian experts familiar with many similar projects in the past, and hired a human powered vehicle designer and a project manager to locate and set up a design facility in Delhi near the new small and innovative bicycle industry on the outskirts of Delhi and cooperate in the design of the new prototypes. In March of 1998, ITDP's human powered vehicle engineer arrived in New Delhi. In cooperation with AITD staff, a workshop was set up on the outskirts of Delhi and prototype development commenced. Staff had collected a host of information on past cycle rickshaw improvement projects from India and around the world ahead of time. In agreement with our project partners AITD, it was decided to develop three prototypes. The first would be a modest improvement of the existing cycle rickshaw operating in Delhi within very tight cost parameters. The new vehicle should cost no more than 25% more than the cost of the existing vehicle, or no more than $150. The second prototype would be a luxury version of the cycle rickshaw operating in Agra, sticking more or less to the traditional design, but creating an integral frame, a lighter weight vehicle, with superior components. This vehicle would retain the classic hand crafted features of the traditional vehicle but be targeted to a higher end tourist market. The cost of this vehicle would be kept to no more than $400. The third vehicle would be an essentially experimental vehicle which would be the best cycle rickshaw that can be made from the perspective of speed, stability, and style, but using all Indian components, without concern for the cost. The purpose of this third vehicle was to demonstrate the technical possibilities of human powered vehicle technology, which can be made to travel up to the speed of a normal motor vehicle. We would then develop variations on each of these three basic types. In order to avoid developing a vehicle in isolation of commercial interest, ITDP and AITD decided to set up two advisory boards, one in Agra and one in Delhi. The first prototype and its variations, which we called among ourselves the 'Volkswagen', is targeted to the Delhi low-end market, and AITD has taken responsibility to set up an advisory board of existing cycle rickshaw manufacturers, owners, and experts, who would comment on the prototype, discuss whether and under what conditions they would consider investing the development of a trial fleet, and provide recommendations for further design modifications. The second prototype, which we called among ourselves the 'Rolls Royce,' which is targeted to the Agra tourist market, ITDP set up an advisory board in Agra of potential investors, potential manufacturers of the new designs (the owners of tourist agencies and hotels, all members of the Tourist Promotion Board), local government officials, and the cycle rickshaw wallah's union. The project is currently developing these prototypes, and their projected completion date is May of 1998. In May, all of the prototypes will be presented to the advisory boards in Agra and Delhi, and a further round of design revisions will be made. Once the further revisions are made, Phase I of the project will be complete. During Phase II, ITDP and AITD will hold negotiations with potential investors in the trial fleet. The investors in Agra are likely to be from the tourist industry and in Delhi will be cycle rickshaw fleet owners. Through a process of competitive bidding, ITDP and AITD will sign a contract with the investor to purchase and operate the trial fleet for a period of six months, allowing ITDP and AITD to study the financial, economic, and cultural feasibility of expanding operations. ITDP and AITD will also arrange for the manufacture of the trial fleet through a process of competitive bidding, but there is one cycle rickshaw manufacturer in Agra which is technically more proficient than the others, with whom we have a relationship, and it is likely that we will ask this manufacturer to produce the trial fleet. This will require ITDP training of the local manufacturer on how to manufacture these vehicles, which is likely to take several weeks to a month and oversight of the manufacture of the trial fleet. A similar process will occur in Delhi. Once the trial fleet is completed, it will be turned over to the investor for operation. After six months of operation, ITDP will perform a financial and technical analysis of the business, and make further design changes based on observed cost parameters, customer and operator opinions, and other factors. At the same time, AITD will perform a survey to estimate the total market for such vehicles in Agra, Delhi, and perhaps selected other locations. Based on the conclusions of this evaluation, and the level of investor interest in the project, ITDP will work on developing a 'kit' for mass production, which could considerably reduce the unit cost of the cycle rickshaw. The hope would be to make an integral frame part of the standard kit and thus possible to mass produce. ITDP and AITD will solicit bids from potential investors and provide sufficient guarantees to the private sector to ensure a willingness to participate in order to reach a minimum order required by the large scale mass manufacturers. By working with smaller manufacturers on the outskirts of Delhi, we are hoping that the numbers required to initiate a trial order of re-engineered kits, but the ultimate orders will be placed based on competitive bids. PUBLIC POLICIES WHICH WOULD FACILITATE PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION While not necessarily critical to project success, the economic viability of new, human powered vehicle technology adaptation in India will be strongly influenced by the public policy environment in which they are received. The project would be greatly facilitated by improvements in the traffic safety environment in which these and other human powered vehicles in Agra operate. If the accessibility of the Taj Mahal area and other historical districts were improved with the new vehicle, this would facilitate traffic calming and tighter restrictions on motor vehicle use in these areas. Developing a network of safe cycleways connecting several of the main landmarks, like the New York greenways plan which connects the major parks in New York's five boroughs, would all greatly improve the chances of project success. Clearly, restrictions on the use of cycle rickshaws in Agra, as have been adopted in New Delhi and more recently in Calcutta, would destroy the chances for project success, and this project is intended in part to demonstrate an environmentally and socially beneficial alternative to these policies. Excise taxes on commercial vehicles are currently being avoided in the cycle rickshaw industry by informal sector manufacturing, but may be a primary barrier to the adoption of an entirely mass produced cycle rickshaw, which might substantially bring down the cost and improve the quality. An exemption of this commercial vehicle excise tax for non-motorized vehicles would have positive environmental and social consequences, and would greatly enhance the viability of this project. There are also manufacturing license restrictions on the types of vehicles produced by the large manufacturers which are inhibiting vehicle innovation which would have to be relaxed in order to induce a more continual process of technological innovation. Local government licensing requirements also affect the market and viability of cycle rickshaws in both positive and negative ways. Currently, cycle rickshaws must meet certain design criteria in order to be eligible for a license. Currently these standards only require mud guards over the rear wheels and a functioning canopy. While even these minor requirements are not really enforced and many vehicles operate without licenses anyway, they do seem to have some normative influence as almost all the vehicles had mud guards and most had functioning canopies. To these requirements could be added better brakes and other safety features such as lighting and warning devices. An up-market, luxury vehicle might also be eligible for a special license which would allow the vehicle to operate with privileges, such as freedom to operate , on hotel grounds, inside tourist areas, in military cantonments, and on other public facilities. Eligibility for the license might require that drivers be uniformed, be required to speak some English, and fares could be fixed for time, distance, or final destination. In the initial stages, this licensing fee could be waived in order to facilitate the adoption of the new technology. The Commissioner of the Municipality has already agreed to grant the current license without fee to the new vehicles. CONCLUSIONS AND QUESTIONS Several fundamental changes in the global economy have made the reports of the imminent death of the cycle rickshaw premature. First, tourism has grown in its economic importance. Globally, it now accounts for an estimated 7% of world economic output. This change has given municipalities strong incentives to improve the quality of life and the attractiveness of their cities as tourist destinations. Further, it has created market opportunities both for traditional crafts but also for traditional means of transport. Touring a city does not require high speed, it requires slow speeds and safe, unpolluted travel conditions. Secondly, rapid motorization has brought with it a host of environmental problems that are causing an increasing public health problems. Restrictions on the use of private motor vehicles in central urban areas to control pollution and congestion are increasingly common around the world and increasingly in Southeast Asia. Exclusive bus lanes have been put in recently in Kuala Lumpur, are being discussed in Manila, and Singapore has long had an area licensing scheme in its downtown. In these conditions, the majority of the congestion is being created by extremely space-intensive private motor vehicles. Average travel speeds in heavily congested Jakarta, Bangkok, and other Asian cities have slowed to levels below those attained by cycle rickshaw due to traffic congestion. Most countries are gradually adopting a fundamentally new approach to traffic planning which focuses on improving the mobility of people rather than of vehicles, facilitating public transit, pedestrian and human-powered vehicle access, and allowing private motor vehicle use only to those willing and able to afford the enormous external pollution and congestion costs generated by this mode of travel. Several questions about the Taj Cycle Taxi Project remain, and several critical problems. First, it is unclear as yet whether this project will successfully lead to the commercial production of a superior cycle rickshaw. Secondly, it is not yet clear that if such commercial production does commence with an elite vehicle, that the technological advances used will find their way into the manufacture of the cycle rickshaw fleet being used by ordinary people. Third, it is possible that the existence of a superior alternative vehicle will be used by authorities to ban the old vehicles, which would cause a major disruption of the livelihoods of many current cycle rickshaw owners, manufacturers, and operators, significantly increasing their operating costs for a time, if nothing else. Fourth, the interests of all the project partners are not identical. ITDP and AITD would like to see the new technology disseminated and copied by as many manufacturers as possible, while our private sector partners, if the new model is successful, would like to profit from the new product at the expense of their competitors. How this conflict will manifest itself is not yet clear. In a few years we will know a lot more. MAIN SOURCES Amegbletor, L. 1993. "Introducing Intermediate Means of Transport in Ghana - A Solution to Rural Mobility Needs," International Forum for Rural Transport and Development, First Regional Meeting of Experts in Anglophone Africa, Lilongwe, Malawi. Christoplos, I. "The Pisces Project: The Tricicleros of Santo Domingo," (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Foundation Occasional Papers, 1984) Gallagher, R. 1992. The Rickshaws of Bangladesh, (St. Gallen: Swiss Centre for Development Cooperation in Technology and Management) Heierli, U. 1993. Environmental Limits to Motorization: Non- Motorized Transport in Developed and Developing Countries (St. Gallen, Switzerland: Swiss Centre for Development Cooperation in Technology and Management) Hook, W. 1994. Counting on Cars, Counting Out People (New York: Institute for Transportation and Development Policy) Hook, W. 1996. "The Economic Importance of Non-Motorized Transportation," Non-Motorized Transportation Research, Issues, and Use (Washington D.C.: Transportation Research Record No. 1487). p. 14. Non-Motorised Transport in India: Current Status and Policy Issues. 1996. (Delhi: Asian Institute for Transport Development). Pankaj, T., 1991. "Designing Low-cost Rural Transport Components to Reach the Poor," Infrastructure Notes (Washington, D.C.: World Bank). Turner, S., C. Weaver, and M. Reale, 1993. "Cost and Emissions Benefits of Selected Air Pollution Control Measures for Santiago, Chile: Final Report." (Sacramento: Engine, Fuel and Emissions Engineering, Inc.). World Bank. 1991. International Competition in the Bicycle Industry: Keeping Pace with Technological Change. World Bank Industry and Energy Department Working Paper. Industry Series Paper No. 50, Washington, D.C. Zille, P. 1989. "The Indian Cycle Trailer: A Case Study in the Development of Appropriate Transport Technologies." (Washington, D.C.: Transportation Research Board) ITDP's Website is at www.itdp.org back to the index